Deficit out of the way unemployment and high interest rates during the low probability of the United States

 Since November 3, 2010 a new round of the Fed since the introduction of quantitative easing, the Federal Reserve released a large-scale mobility of full 3 months. In the global commodity and raw material prices in the context of emerging economies have entered the interest rate cycle has been on the market investors bet the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates are increasing.

interviewed analysts pointed out that the U.S. interest rate increase in the first half of 2011, conditions are not yet mature, because the lag of economic indicators, the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates as early as December 2011, but full-year 2011 the possibility of interest rates are very small.

quantitative easing inflationary worries

2010   11 3, the Fed issued QE2, the move did receive the results. The latest statistics show that U.S. manufacturing PMI in January to February manufactures 60.8,12-than-expected industrial orders in Central which was an increase of 0.1%, far better than expected 0.5% decline.

However, the U.S. economy is still facing many challenges. In addition to the release in order to save huge amounts of liquidity crisis, the public data also show that as the main way of financing the U.S. government, the U.S. national debt, 13 trillion-dollar, guaranteed by the U.S. government has 11 trillion real estate bonds.

the U.S. government's budget deficit has been high in recent three fiscal years were as high as 1.6 trillion, 1.56 trillion and 1.42 trillion.

SW Futures (Hong Kong) executive director, said Zhang Minjie, QE2 implementation means that as of June this year, the Fed delivered monthly to the real economy of up to 110 billion U.S. dollars of liquidity, the U.S. short-and medium-term inflation highlights the pressure, the dollar has become a major long-term depreciation of the probability event.

concerned about unemployment and CPI

It is reported that high unemployment and debt have become troubled by two major problems the U.S. economy, which restricts the Fed and monetary policy stimulus quit turning point in time choice.

conditions on U.S. interest rates, macroeconomic analyst at Western Securities that the Yan-Zhao, CPI reflects the terminal needs as the most important indicator of future U.S. monetary policy will become an important turning point for observing.

drive revenue increased as a precondition.

U.S. Labor Department released the latest data showed the U.S. unemployment rate fell to 9% in January, better than expected 9.5% over the same period last year, the U.S. unemployment rate has hovered around 10%; the same time, in January of non- Agricultural employment increased 3.6 million, far below market expectations of 13.6 million people.

von GF bright futures gold analyst said the U.S. job market is still improving, but not less than 8% unemployment rate will also maintain a minimum 2 years of historical data shows that the Fed has never been unemployment rate of over 9% interest rate.

Win Lose kinds of things.

unlikely to raise interest rates this year

food and commodity prices continued to rise, investors expected interest rate increase in advance.

interviewed analysts pointed out that the U.S. interest rate increase in the first half of 2011, conditions are not yet mature, because the lag of economic indicators, the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates as early as December 2011, but full-year 2011 the possibility of interest rates are very small.

Feng Liang pointed out that although the Fed did not loose the second time and the scale of quantitative ceiling, but the market is expected under the most optimistic scenario, the second quantitative easing will end in June 2011.

Feng Liang said, the effect of the implementation, so interest rates at the earliest to December 2011, so the possibility of raising interest rates throughout the year are very small.